RAILSTRONG WEEKLY SIGNAL

Executive Market Signal

Rail continues carrying sustained momentum while truckload capacity remains tight enough to preserve a meaningful modal-conversion opportunity.

For the week ending August 22, 2026, total U.S. rail traffic reached 532,462 carloads and intermodal units, up 4.2 percent from the comparable week of 2025. Carloads totaled 235,885, up 3.2 percent, while intermodal reached 296,577 containers and trailers, up 5.0 percent.

The latest week represented the twentieth consecutive week of year-over-year U.S. rail traffic growth. Through the first 33 weeks of 2026, U.S. carloads were up 2.7 percent, intermodal units were up 3.8 percent, and total combined traffic was up 3.3 percent.

Truckload capacity has eased from the July peak but remains structurally tighter than during the loose freight market. Tender rejections are running around 13.5 percent, indicating that available truck supply has stabilized at a materially tighter level even without a major demand surge.

Intermodal continues to benefit from that environment. Current market analysis indicates intermodal demand is running above the five-year average, while contract intermodal pricing maintains a substantial discount to comparable truckload service.

Fuel adds another important variable. U.S. on-highway diesel reached $5.652 per gallon for the week of August 24, up 19.8 cents in one week. East Coast diesel averaged $5.498 while the Central Atlantic reached $5.840.

Northeast energy remains strategically important, but the signal should not be overstated. U.S. marketed natural-gas production is on track for a record year. Appalachia remains a foundational producing region, although much of the incremental national growth currently comes from the Permian and Haynesville.

Rail Market Update

The latest Association of American Railroads report reinforces the underlying strength of the rail market. Total weekly traffic increased 4.2 percent year over year, extending the industry's growth streak to twenty consecutive weeks.

Seven of the ten major carload commodity groups increased from the comparable week last year.

• Metallic ores and metals increased by 2,054 carloads to 23,663.
• Chemicals increased by 1,923 carloads to 33,850.
• Grain increased by 1,844 carloads to 22,260.

Those gains are particularly relevant to industrial and transload networks because they represent freight categories that frequently require specialized terminal, bulk, storage, switching and first/final-mile capabilities.

Motor vehicles and parts remain softer, declining by 1,837 carloads year over year. This confirms that rail growth is broad but not universal and reinforces the importance of examining commodity mix rather than treating total traffic as a single market.

North American rail traffic also remains healthy. Combined U.S., Canadian and Mexican weekly traffic increased 5.6 percent year over year, with both carloads and intermodal units showing gains.

Rail Market Signals

• Twenty consecutive weeks of year-over-year U.S. rail traffic growth.
• Positive growth in chemicals, metals and grain.
• Intermodal continues contributing meaningful traffic gains.
• Improving economics versus trucking support highway conversion.
• Industrial freight remains a major rail growth opportunity.

Class I Railroad Developments

Recent Class I results reinforce the broader traffic data.

CSX reported second-quarter volume of approximately 1.51 million units, up 17 percent year over year, with higher activity across merchandise, intermodal and coal. Operating income improved to approximately $1.51 billion.

BNSF reported second-quarter volume growth of approximately 7 percent compared with the prior year, while second-quarter revenue increased approximately 15 percent.

Norfolk Southern reported improving demand across key markets during the second quarter. Industrial markets, coal and domestic intermodal were among the areas supporting stronger second-half expectations.

The proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern combination also remains an important long-term industry development. The Surface Transportation Board issued a procedural schedule on August 18, and the railroads continue defending the completeness of their application. The regulatory process remains active, meaning the proposal should be monitored as a strategic industry development rather than treated as a completed transaction.

Intermodal Market Update

Intermodal remains one of the strongest strategic opportunities in the current transportation market.

U.S. weekly intermodal traffic increased 5.0 percent year over year in the most recent AAR report. Year-to-date U.S. intermodal units are up 3.8 percent.

Market analysis also shows intermodal demand tracking above the five-year average while truckload capacity remains constrained.

The pricing spread is especially important. Recent SONAR analysis cited an approximately 34 percent discount between intermodal contract rates and truckload contract rates. During the same three-month period, truckload contract rates increased approximately 7.5 percent while intermodal contract rates rose only about 0.6 percent.

That kind of spread changes the modal-conversion conversation. Intermodal becomes less about sustainability messaging and more about basic transportation economics.

Intermodal Advantages

• Significant long-haul cost advantage on qualifying lanes.
• Reduced dependence on long-haul driver capacity.
• Better fuel efficiency.
• Increasingly competitive service consistency.
• Strong fit for planned and repeatable freight flows.
• Ability to absorb freight that would otherwise pressure truckload networks.

Intermodal Constraints

• Drayage availability remains market specific.
• First- and final-mile execution can erase linehaul savings if poorly designed.
• Transit is not appropriate for every service-sensitive shipment.
• Shippers need sufficient volume and planning discipline.

Transload Market Update

Unlike rail traffic or truckload tender rejections, there is no comprehensive public weekly transload index. RAILSTRONG therefore treats transload conditions as an operational market inference rather than presenting unsupported national growth percentages.

Current conditions nevertheless create a favorable environment for transload because several supporting indicators are moving in the same direction:

• Rail traffic remains above prior-year levels.
• Chemical and metals carloads are growing.
• Intermodal economics are improving relative to trucking.
• Diesel is increasing long-haul truck costs.
• Flatbed capacity remains constrained.
• Railroads continue emphasizing improved first- and final-mile access.

Transload is especially relevant for shippers that cannot justify direct rail infrastructure but can generate enough volume to benefit from rail linehaul economics.

Strong Transload Candidates

• Steel and metals.
• Chemicals and plastics.
• Lumber and building products.
• Aggregates and minerals.
• Pipe and industrial equipment.
• Frac sand and energy materials.
• Bulk commodities.
• Heavy or high-density freight.

The strategic focus should increasingly be on terminal capability, storage, inventory management, trucking radius, rail service frequency and equipment availability rather than simply locating a siding.

Truckload Market Update

The truckload market has cooled from early-summer peaks without returning to the extremely loose conditions seen earlier in the freight cycle.

Tender rejections remain around 13.5 percent as the market approaches Labor Day. Freight market analysis suggests the stabilization is largely supply driven: truck availability has tightened enough to preserve carrier pricing even though demand has not experienced a dramatic rebound.

Earlier-August data showed national truckload rejections above 14 percent, with flatbed rejection levels around 23.5 percent and refrigerated freight near 19.5 percent.

Flatbed continues to deserve special attention because it is exposed to industrial production, infrastructure, energy, construction, steel and equipment demand.

Truckload Pressure Points

• Carrier exits and fleet discipline continue limiting excess supply.
• Insurance and equipment costs remain elevated.
• Driver recruiting remains difficult in several markets.
• Fuel has accelerated sharply.
• Flatbed availability remains more constrained than broad dry van capacity.
• Peak-season and holiday demand could produce sharper regional disruptions.

Fuel Market

Fuel is once again a major transportation strategy variable.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported average U.S. on-highway diesel of $5.652 per gallon on August 24, up 19.8 cents from the previous week.

• U.S.: $5.652 per gallon.
• East Coast: $5.498.
• New England: $5.716.
• Central Atlantic: $5.840.
• Lower Atlantic: $5.350.
• Midwest: $5.636.

The Central Atlantic is especially relevant to Northeast logistics because diesel above $5.80 materially changes long-haul truck economics and increases the value of rail-supported linehaul options.

Marcellus / Northeast Energy Update

The Marcellus and broader Appalachian natural-gas region remain strategically important to Northeast freight, but current data calls for a measured interpretation.

The EIA forecasts U.S. marketed natural-gas production to average a record 122.5 Bcf per day during 2026. Appalachia remains one of the country's foundational production regions, although current incremental national production growth is concentrated more heavily in the Permian and Haynesville.

The transportation opportunity in the Northeast therefore extends well beyond drilling activity itself.

Freight Categories to Watch

• Natural gas liquids.
• Chemicals and plastics.
• Pipe and steel.
• Aggregates.
• Frac sand.
• Compression and processing equipment.
• Power-generation infrastructure.
• Data-center-related electrical and energy infrastructure.
• Industrial construction materials.

EIA expects third-quarter U.S. LNG exports to average approximately 16.5 Bcf per day. Continued LNG and electricity demand create a strong national pull on natural-gas infrastructure, even when growth is not concentrated solely within the Marcellus.

Freight Market Macro

The transportation market is being shaped by an unusual combination: moderate freight demand, reduced trucking elasticity, rising fuel costs and sustained rail growth.

That combination rewards flexibility.

• Truckload is tighter without requiring an explosive demand recovery.
• Rail continues producing positive year-over-year traffic comparisons.
• Intermodal pricing has become increasingly compelling.
• Fuel increases strengthen the economic argument for rail-supported networks.
• Industrial commodities continue creating opportunities for rail and transload.

RAILSTRONG Strategic Takeaways

• Re-price long-haul truck-only lanes against current intermodal economics.
• Evaluate transload options where direct rail access is unavailable.
• Protect first- and final-mile capacity around rail terminals.
• Revisit modal analyses using current diesel costs.
• Watch chemical, metals and industrial carloads as leading transload indicators.
• Monitor flatbed capacity for infrastructure and energy-linked freight.
• Treat Marcellus through the full industrial ecosystem, not rig count alone.
• Build optionality before peak-season capacity becomes constrained.